Factors That Impact U.S. Holiday Shopping in 2024: Election, Deals, Weather, Number of Days

Holiday Shopping U.S: Key Insights

• Record Spend at Shifting Focus: NRF and Deloitte are predicting record consumer spending this holiday season, with higher participation in shopping events than in previous years. At the same time, product categories purchased by U.S. consumers are expected to shift from gifts to experiences.

• External Factors Influencing Spending: Four factors are particularly important this holiday season. These include the election season, colder-than-usual weather and hurricanes, a deal-hunting consumer mentality and the shorter duration of the holiday season.

The holiday season is coming, and retailers are gearing up to accommodate the needs of consumers more accurately over the next few months. The National Retail Federation (NRF) predicts that U.S. consumers are going to spend a record amount this winter, but the kinds of items they are expected to purchase are likely to shift. While the economic climate favors holiday shopping this year, there are some external factors that are expected to impact spending as well. 

Deloitte’s holiday consumer survey predicts increased participation in holiday shopping events, fueled by a growing sense of consumer frugality and an emphasis on value for money. The consulting firm sees this tendency across all income groups. According to the report, U.S. consumers are expected to spend an average of US$1,778 this season, which marks an 8% increase from 2023. In total, NRF predicts holiday spending will range from US$979.5 billion to US$989 billion.

Holiday Season: The Busiest Time for eCommerce

October and November are particularly important months for online shopping, as the biggest discounting events take place during this time. Amazon Prime Day is an October event, Singles’ Day is on 11/11, followed by Black Friday and Cyber Monday, while Thanksgiving is at the end of November. Traditionally, shoppers tend to wait until these days to make their holiday purchases because of the lower prices. This season in particular, participation is expected to increase, while some other aspects are set to change.

In the United States, there are four factors that are expected to affect how online shoppers spend their money. The first is the election, which is taking place at this time. While the exact impact is uncertain, some consumers may decide to save money in anticipation of an economic downturn, while others may be more optimistic and spend more.

The second aspect is the weather, which is forecast to be colder than usual this winter, combined with the hurricane season through the end of November. Cold weather affects the channels that consumers might prefer to do their holiday shopping, which are staying indoors and ordering online. On the flipside, hurricane damage may shift consumer spending toward rebuilding rather than spending on decorations or gifts. 

The third and fourth factors are a deal-hunting shopping mentality and a shorter holiday season. Both increase the willingness to participate in discounting events, which become more appealing the closer they are to the holidays. 

As all these factors have the potential to benefit eCommerce, the types of products shoppers are predicted to buy are moving in a different direction from previous years. This year, spending is expected to lean towards decorations and expenditure for experiences, rather than gifts. This includes holiday events, social activities, party apparel and products to enhance the holiday atmosphere.

Sources: CNBC – Deloitte – NRF