Grocery market in Kenya

The Kenyan Grocery eCommerce market is predicted to reach US$50.5 million by 2024 and accounts for 7.6% of the total eCommerce market in Kenya. It is expected to increase over the next years. The expected compound annual growth rate for the next four years (CAGR 2024-2028) will be 24.7%, resulting in a projected market volume of US$122.2 million by 2028. Within the Grocery market ECDB considers the following two sub-markets: Food and Beverages.

Market development

eCommerce revenue development in the Baked Goods market in Kenya

The Kenyan Baked Goods eCommerce market is predicted to reach US$1.4 million by 2024 and accounts for 5.0% of the Food eCommerce market in Kenya. It is expected to increase over the next years. The expected compound annual growth rate for the next four years (CAGR 2024-2028) will be 22.4%, resulting in a projected market volume of US$3.3 million by 2028. The Baked Goods eCommerce market is a sub-market of the Food market. Further categories within the Food market are: Food Cupboard, Fresh Food, Frozen Food, and Meal Kits.

eCommerce revenue development in the Baked Goods market in Kenya

in million US$

Note: Market revenue represents B2C sales of physical goods including VAT. It excludes B2B sales, C2C sales, returns, compensation for damaged or missing goods, any discounts granted and services. Data shown is using current exchange rates.

Source: ECDB analysis

eCommerce revenue growth in the Baked Goods market in Kenya

in %

Note: Market revenue represents B2C sales of physical goods including VAT. It excludes B2B sales, C2C sales, returns, compensation for damaged or missing goods, any discounts granted and services. Data shown is using current exchange rates.

Source: ECDB analysis

Net eCommerce revenue split by sub-category

in %

Note: Data shown is using current exchange rates.

Source: ECDB analysis

20202021202220232024202520262027
Revenue (in mUS$)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
Growth (in %)63.657.835.338.72.320.646.739.6

Online share

eCommerce online share of the total Baked Goods market in Kenya

The online share refers to the proportion of the retail volume that is transacted via the Internet. It includes purchases via desktop PC, tablet or smartphone, both via website or app. Only retail of physical goods is taken into account. In the Kenyan Baked Goods retail market, the online share is 0.2% and will decrease by an average of 2.2% to 0.2% by 2028.

eCommerce online share of the total Baked Goods market in Kenya

in %

Note: Data shown is using current exchange rates.

Source: Statista Market Insights , ECDB analysis

20202021202220232024202520262027
Online share (in %)72.1%27.4%46.7%59.5%17.7%44.6%13.1%34.4%

Market definition

Definition of the Baked Goods market within the Grocery market

Market definition: Grocery > Food > Baked Goods The category Baked Goods includes the online trade of breads (e.g. baguettes, buns and rolls, whole wheat bread), pastries (e.g. croissants, muffins, scones) and cakes and pies (e.g. chocolate cakes, cheesecakes, apple pies). This category does not cover cookies and sweets and chocolate. All monetary figures refer to the annual gross revenue and do not factor in shipping costs.

In-scope

  • Breads (e.g. baguettes, buns and rolls, whole wheat bread)
  • Pastries (e.g. croissants, muffins, scones)
  • Cakes and pies (e.g. chocolate cakes, cheesecakes, apple pies)

Out-of-scope

  • Cookies
  • Sweets and chocolate

Market comparison

The Kenyan Baked Goods market in a global comparison

Market comparison by growth, online share, and revenue in 2023

in %

Source: ECDB analysis

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